2020 was set to be the year of the electric car. We have spent years watching institutions and car manufacturers make their promises with the year 2020 always on the horizon. Well, 2020 has arrived and this is what we have.
By no coincidence 2020 was marked on the calendar by car manufacturers. Everything comes from the now famous 95 g/km CO2 regulation. From this same year the average CO2 emissions of models sold by the same manufacturer may not exceed 95 g / km, with some exceptions that will gradually disappear until 2023. If that Emission limit is exceeded by some brand, it will face millions of fines from the European Union.
2020 is also the year in which the European Union's package of measures on climate and energy must be met, the famous 20-20-20 goals: 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (in relation to 1990 levels), 20% renewable energy over primary energy consumption and 20% improvement in energy efficiency. Of course, electric mobility is key to achieving these goals.
Since 2010 Electric car ownership has grown substantially. Beginning the decade with an exponential growth, the curve has flattened in the later years. In 2019 fewer cars were sold than in 2018, this phenomenon is rather due to difficulties in production than actual demand for EVs.
Both public institutions and car manufacturers have always been optimistic when it comes to forecasting electric car sales. Especially in the case of the former, which have always lived far from the reality of the market.
What has been achieved is that practically all brands already have an electric car among their range. Some with more ambitious bets, others instead with more modest or mere procedures, the reality is that the offer of electric cars has increased significantly and that is the first step for sales to increase.
In 2010, 6 fully electric car models were barely sold in Spain. Those cars left a lot to be desired in terms of autonomy and construction qualities, which meant that in practice they were not a real alternative to combustion ones.
As of 2020, that situation has radically changed. Today, it is difficult to know how many electric models are on the market, but they are not exactly few. Among the few brands that do not yet have an electric car on the market, there is hardly any Toyota, which continues with its firm (and for the moment safe) bet on hybrid engines. While it is true that in no case has closed the door and has already announced an electric car through its premium sister, Lexus.
But increasing the variety of models, although it has cost, is not something complicated for brands. The tricky part is offering them at a competitive price.
We have been talking for years about the deep promise that the price of electric cars equals that of combustion. And the truth is that it does not seem that this will happen in the short term. Or maybe never.
Luckily, more affordable models are appearing, such as the cheaper Tesla Model 3. It costs $41,190 before adding options and has 250 miles (402 km) of driving range. Sure $41,190 is not affordable for everyone but it is a step in the right direction. For perspective the average light vehicle sold in the United States was $37,851 in January 2020. Electric vehicles are already attractive thanks to Tesla, and now are closing the gap when it comes to price.
In Europe the cheap electric car option for excellence is the SEAT Mii Electric. The average price in the EU is around 20,000 euros. Now, with public aid in some countries such as Spain, you can take it home for less than 15,000 euros. The car has a 256 kms (165 miles), which puts it way behind the Tesla Model 3, which also has a lot more benefits we could take an entire day mentioning, but the SEAT Mii is half the price and a step in the right direction.
In any case, if we talk about the purchase price, electric cars still have a notable price premium compared to combustion. It is very different to do the calculations taking into account the useful life of the vehicle, when, due to the low cost of recharging at home, the numbers start to come out.
A 2018 study from the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute revealed that electric vehicles cost less than half as much to operate as gas-powered cars. The average gasoline-powered vehicle yearly operation cost is $1,117 in the US. While the electric counterparts are only $485 per year.
The exact price difference depends mainly on gas and electric rates where you drive the car. Depending on your vehicle’s fuel efficiency rating, the money you spend to fill up your gas tank will translate to varying travel ranges. “Fuel-efficient” conventional cars are designed to maximize their miles per gallon (mpg) rating, thus costing the least amount of money per mile travelled. A car rated at 30 mpg will cost less money in fuel over time than a car rated at 20 mpg.
The cost to run an electric vehicle is slightly more complicated. Although you don’t pay a gas pump-type fee every time you charge your EV battery, the electricity being used to charge your battery counts towards your home electric bill. You can directly compare electricity and gas costs when running an electric car vs. a conventional gas-powered car with the Department of Energy’s eGallon tool. This calculator is updated regularly, and compares the cost of driving a mile on gasoline vs. a mile on electricity, depending on where you live and energy prices at the time. Generally, the cost of electricity is decreasing in price, as renewable power generation costs fall lower and lower with advancements in technology and policy.
First-timer car owners tend to ignore the cost maintenance will have. This is particularly important when talking Fuel cars as they get old in an expensive manner. Engine maintenance can drain your money. Changing oil, transmission fluid, coolant and belts is necessary. Electric vehicles are much better in this respect as all those costs disappear. Nevertheless you will still have to deal with expenses like brake and tire changes, insurance and structural repair.
The largest factor in EVs maintenance is the electric battery pack replacement. Unlike a conventional battery, EVs have complex and large rechargeable batteries that are recharged and drained all the time, replacing your EV battery is expensive. As of 2020 EVs are known for breaking down less and battery replacement are not so common, but carmakers are entering the market and therefore maintenance and obsoletion is something yet to be seen.
On the upside Electric cars allow for upgrades. In the case of the Tesla EVs, they receive a lot of software updates that come with lots of perks ranging from mere curiosities to real additional range or capabilities. Also Electric cars are thought to be some day self driving, thus the conversion to this new technology will be much more convenient (or possible) than in Fuel cars when it comes.
The dream of traveling by electric car is closer today than ever. After years with a supply of vehicles that could not go much beyond the urban and peri-urban environment, there are finally models on the market with which to make trips begins to become a reality.
Separate mention deserves the undeniable advance that has brought the arrival of the WLTP cycle. Many of you will remember the optimistic NEDC cycle, which announced electric cars with 210 kilometers of autonomy when they were barely 150-160 and others with 400 kilometers of autonomy when they hopefully made 300 in favorable conditions. Now, the autonomy figures are much more reliable, although it is important to be clear that they can vary depending on the outside temperature and at highway speeds they increase significantly.
Although it is not a model designed to travel, the clearest example of the evolution of the autonomy of the electric car we have in the Renault ZOE. It came onto the market back in 2013 with 22 kWh of battery and 210 kilometers of autonomy approved in the NEDC cycle, which would be about 160 in the WLTP cycle. Today, you can share a Renault ZOE with 52 kWh of battery and 390 kilometers of WLTP autonomy. In 7 years, the updated version has practically 150% more autonomy.
But, as we have said before, traveling comfortably by electric car is not suitable for all budgets. The models with the most autonomy on the market are premium (or have a premium price) and are not available to anyone. Among the 14 electric cars with more autonomy, only the Hyundai Kona, the KIA e-Niro and the KIA e-Soul in their 64 kWh versions (with 449, 455 and 452 kilometers of autonomy respectively) have a price that starts from $39,090. From there, the next cheapest is the Tesla Model 3 Great autonomy (560 kilometers), which goes up to $41,190.
Technologically, the autonomy barrier has already been overcome. However, to travel comfortably in an electric car it is not only necessary to have a reasonable autonomy, but also a charging infrastructure that allows it. And there is still a long way to go here.
But, as we have said before, traveling comfortably by electric car is not suitable for all budgets. The models with the most autonomy on the market are premium (or have a premium price) and are not available to anyone. Among the 14 electric cars with more autonomy, only the Hyundai Kona, the KIA e-Niro and the KIA e-Soul in their 64 kWh versions (with 449, 455 and 452 kilometers of autonomy respectively) have a price that starts from 40,000 euros. From there, the next cheapest is the Tesla Model 3 Great autonomy (560 kilometers), which goes up to 58,700 euros.
Traveling freely and without worries in an electric car remains one of the great unfulfilled promises of the sector. The current autonomies are much more than enough to cover the day-to-day needs of the bulk of the population, but if what we want is for electric cars to become the first (and even only) household car, a Extensive and reliable fast recharging infrastructure covering the main highways and expressways in every country.
The US already has a pretty decent recharging infrastructure. As of 2020 there are over 78,500 charging outlets and this number is only increasing. In the same way there are 170,149 public charging stations in Europe. China is doing great too, with over 500,000 public charging poles. Nevertheless the same does not apply for the rest of the world, there is a lot to do in Latin America, Africa and Asia.
In short, it can be said that industry, public institutions and society in general have been optimistic about the electric car and the 2020 horizon. If we look back 10 years ago, it is undeniable that we have come a long way. However, being critical, there is still a long way to go. There is no doubt that the future of the automotive industry is electric. Will 2025 be the year of the electric car? Or 2030?